IMF sees global economy resilient despite Iran war energy shock
A war-related energy shock involving Iran implies disruption risk to oil and gas flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from BP plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
QatarEnergy (Qatar Energy) →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production
QatarEnergy has a 7% share in this supply and the 120-month replacement lead time makes any Iran-related energy disruption likely to tighten output from this market.
72% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Prices riseNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
With Gazprom representing 15% of supply and only moderate substitutability, an energy-shock hit to Gazprom would most defensibly raise the cost of this industrial gas input.
68% confidenceEquinor ASA →Prices riseIran-related energy disruption tightens the gas market, and Equinor’s 20% supply share means this natural-gas stream faces meaningful price pressure despite moderate substitutability.
67% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseNatural gas wellhead production
Iran-related oil/gas disruptions would likely lift natural-gas feedstock costs and availability pressure, and BP's 3.5% dependency with an 18-month replacement horizon makes the effect real but modest.
64% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskHelium (Grade 5.0 / Fiber-Drawing Grade)
Gazprom is a meaningful supplier here (9% share) and the combination of very low substitutability and a long replacement window makes a war-related energy disruption likely to tighten helium availability.
64% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Prices riseNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
Gazprom's 8% share, long replacement lead time, and only partial substitutability make a supply shock more likely to show up as higher pipeline-gas prices than immediate full shortage.
63% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is the critical Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, so a supply shock directly constrains ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer output.
97% confidenceNatural Gas →Prices riseSEMPRASRE
Sempra has already disclosed that higher average natural gas prices increase its cost of natural gas, so a further gas shock directly raises costs.
95% confidenceNatural Gas →Prices riseHop 3
Iran →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade)
Iran's 6.46% supply share means gas-flow disruption can constrain ammonia and fertilizer feedstock gas.
87% confidenceIran →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Process Heat & Ammonia Coupling)
Iran supplies 6.46% of this coupled gas demand, so an energy shock can reduce process-heat and ammonia fuel availability.
87% confidenceIran →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Extrusion & Retort Energy)
Iran supplies 6.46% of this gas use, so a conflict-driven energy shock can tighten availability for extrusion and retort energy.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Industrial gases · Natural gas (home) · Fiber optic cables and networking
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.