Iraq's oil minister says exports have fallen by half due to the Strait of Hormuz
A reported drop in exports tied to the Strait of Hormuz indicates a major disruption to oil flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskIraq supplies 3.3% of Canadian crude oil imports, so the Hormuz-driven drop in Iraqi exports constrains that supply leg.
92% confidenceSaudi Aramco →Shortage riskA major disruption to Hormuz oil flows makes crude supply scarcer, and Aramco’s crude-oil-feedstock dependency is only moderately substitutable with a 3-month replacement lead time.
62% confidenceHop 2
Iraq →Shortage riskIf Iraq's exports fall, Canadian crude imports sourced from Iraq become scarcer, and the edge gives Iraq a 3.3% supply share.
83% confidenceIraq →Shortage riskIraq's export disruption reduces external supply of marine diesel and bunker fuel, and the edge shows Iraq supplies 5.19% of that input.
82% confidenceIraq →Shortage riskDiesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power)
Hop 3
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage riskJet fuel is a critical downstream output with 0.95 dependency on this feedstock, so the disruption should directly constrain availability.
95% confidenceMarine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Shortage riskSeafood and fish is a critical downstream user of marine diesel and bunker fuel, so a Hormuz-related fuel disruption should materially reduce its availability.
88% confidenceGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Prices riseHop 4
Phillips 66 →Prices easeChord disclosed that Phillips 66 accounted for about 21% of product sales, so a Phillips66 disruption should cut Chord's orders and pressure its sales prices/revenue.
94% confidenceMarathon Petroleum Corporation →Shortage riskGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
A Hormuz-driven crude flow disruption would tighten availability of Marathon's Gulf Coast feedstock; the 7% share and 3-month replacement lead time make the impact material but not total.
84% confidencePhillips 66 →Shortage riskHop 5
Ethylene monomer (polymer grade) →Shortage riskThis good is critically dependent on polymer-grade ethylene monomer, so a feedstock disruption directly constrains output.
96% confidenceCalcined Petroleum Coke (CPC) — Aluminum Anodes →Shortage riskAluminum and aluminum products
CPC is a critical aluminum-anode input, so a supply disruption tightens downstream aluminum and aluminum-products output.
94% confidenceFish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Seafood and fish · Palladium and platinum group metals · Trash bags and plastic wrap · Aluminum and aluminum products · Cement and concrete
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.