Anhydrous Ammonia (NH₃) →Shortage risk
Fertilizers and crop inputs
Anhydrous ammonia is a critical, high-dependency input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so a Hormuz-driven NH3 shortfall directly tightens downstream agricultural input availability.
97% confidence
Natural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade) →Shortage risk
Fertilizers and crop inputs
Natural gas is a critical ammonia/fertilizer feedstock, so a feedstock shock directly tightens fertilizer and crop input availability.
95% confidence
Urea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Shortage risk
Fertilizers and crop inputs
Urea is a critical input to the broader fertilizer basket, so a urea supply shock tightens availability of fertilizers and crop inputs.
95% confidence
Arab Potash Company (APC) →Shortage risk
Potassium Nitrate (KNO₃) — Specialty FertilizerAPC
APC is already the upstream node in the KNO₃ chain, so a fertilizer-supply shock would tighten availability of this specialty fertilizer first.
79% confidence
Yara International ASA →Prices rise
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Yara's gas-intensive fertilizer production is hard to substitute and slow to replace, so a Hormuz-related fertilizer shock should lift delivered natural-gas costs sharply.
76% confidence
Natural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade) →Prices rise
CF Industries HoldingsCF
CF Industries uses natural gas in fertilizer production, so feedstock disruption transmits as higher costs and tighter operating margins.
76% confidence
Natural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade) →Prices rise
Yara International
Yara directly consumes natural gas as fertilizer feedstock, so a gas shock raises its input costs and can constrain output.
73% confidence
Yara International ASA →Prices rise
Anhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production)
Anhydrous ammonia is a core fertilizer precursor with limited substitutability, so blockage-driven tightening should raise its price at Yara.
70% confidence
Natural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade) →Prices rise
EuroChem Group AG
EuroChem depends on this gas feedstock, and the long replacement lead time makes the cost and supply shock harder to absorb.
69% confidence
Natural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade) →Prices rise
OCI N.V.
OCI is directly exposed to natural-gas feedstock costs in fertilizer production, so a gas disruption transmits as higher input costs.
67% confidence
Arab Potash Company (APC) →Shortage risk
Potash Ore — Muriate of Potash (MOP / KCl)APC
As APC's core potash product with only 5% market share and a 12-month replacement horizon, any APC constraint would make MOP scarcer.
66% confidence
Yara International ASA →Prices rise
Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
Urea is a standard fertilizer input with moderate replaceability, so the chokepoint shock should still lift Yara's procurement cost.
60% confidence
Anhydrous Ammonia (NH₃) →Stands to benefit
Nutrien Ltd.NTR
As a major NH3 supplier with meaningful market share, Nutrien can gain pricing power and diverted demand when ammonia supply is constrained.
58% confidence
Wentong Group →Shortage risk
Potassium Nitrate (KNO₃) — Specialty Fertilizer
Wentong Group supplies about 11% of this potassium nitrate stream, and with only moderate substitutability the loss of its output would tighten KNO₃ availability rather than be fully absorbed immediately.
56% confidence
