Gevo formally cancels plans for jet fuel facility in South Dakota
Cancelling the planned facility removes future sustainable jet fuel production capacity in South Dakota.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Montana Renewables (Calumet), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Sustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) →Shortage riskCanceling a planned SAF facility removes future jet-fuel output capacity, so the downstream jet fuel pool becomes somewhat scarcer.
68% confidenceGreen Plains Inc. →Prices easeGevo says the canceled South Dakota site was designed to convert corn ethanol into aviation fuel, so removing that future demand should put mild downward pressure on fuel-grade corn ethanol, which Green Plains lists as an input.
61% confidenceMontana Renewables (Calumet) →Prices riseSustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids)
Hop 2
Jet fuel →Prices easeSustainable Aviation Fuel — HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids)
Canceling the planned SAF facility removes future jet-fuel output, which lowers demand for HEFA-based SAF volumes.
66% confidenceCorn Ethanol (fuel-grade) →Prices easeThe canceled facility removes a future demand sink for fuel-grade corn ethanol, so the dominant U.S. supply base (95% share) would face weaker off-take and softer prices.
63% confidenceJet fuel →Prices easeHop 3
Used cooking oil (UCO) for SAF production →Shortage riskCanceling the planned SAF facility removes future jet-fuel production capacity, so the linked Jet fuel node sees a material supply shortfall.
86% confidenceUsed cooking oil (UCO) for SAF production →Prices easeWith the facility canceled, China's 24.5% share of UCO supply faces weaker offtake demand, pressuring the price of the UCO it supplies lower.
60% confidenceUsed cooking oil (UCO) for SAF production →Prices easeWith the facility canceled, Australia's 15.9% share of UCO supply faces weaker offtake demand, pressuring the price of the UCO it supplies lower.
Hop 4
Australia →Prices easeBeef Tallow (Technical/Inedible Grade)
Cancelling a planned SAF facility reduces prospective demand for lipid feedstocks used in HEFA pathways, and Australia is a material beef-tallow supplier at 16% of global supply.
31% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel
Companies you may own
GPREFlint Hills Resources (Koch Industries)Marquis Energy LLC
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