A Turkish company invests 100 million euros to boost fertilizer production in Germany
A Turkish chemical company is adding fertilizer production capacity in Germany, increasing supply of fertilizer inputs.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Evonik Industries (Animal Nutrition), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
EuroChem Group →supply upAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive
Added production capacity at EuroChem should increase ammonium nitrate output, with the edge indicating a larger 6% market share than urea.
81% confidenceEuroChem Group →supply upUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
EuroChem expanding fertilizer capacity should raise available urea supply, and the edge already marks EuroChem as a 3% supplier in that commodity market.
79% confidenceHaifa Group →supply upPotassium Nitrate (KNO₃) — Specialty Fertilizer
The new German fertilizer capacity should increase availability in the specialty-fertilizer market, and this edge identifies potassium nitrate as one of Haifa Group's fertilizer inputs/products exposed to that supply expansion.
57% confidenceGreenChem →supply upDEF/AdBlue (Diesel Exhaust Fluid, 32.5% Urea Solution)
Expanded fertilizer capacity in Germany should increase urea availability, which supports GreenChem’s DEF/AdBlue input, though the edge suggests only a modest 8% dependency and the input is substitutable.
46% confidenceHop 2
Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →supply upUrea is a critical fertilizer input for rice, so more urea availability should ease a major production constraint and lift rice output.
88% confidencePotassium Nitrate (KNO₃) — Specialty Fertilizer →supply upGermany (Federal Republic of Germany)
The new fertilizer capacity is in Germany, so the country's share of KNO3 supply should rise.
88% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →supply upAN is a core fertilizer input, so additional production directly raises availability for fertilizers and crop inputs.
79% confidencePotassium Nitrate (KNO₃) — Specialty Fertilizer →supply upPotassium nitrate is an input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so more KNO3 availability should raise supply of the broader good.
78% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Stands to benefitYara's 12% AN exposure means extra supply should materially ease its feedstock constraint.
74% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Stands to benefitUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz)
ToAz has a direct AN linkage with meaningful share exposure, so higher AN supply improves its input availability.
72% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Stands to benefitCF's AN dependence makes it a direct beneficiary of looser AN supply.
69% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Stands to benefitNutrien Ltd.NTR
Nutrien's AN exposure should benefit from more readily available AN feedstock.
67% confidenceUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →Prices easeAs an incumbent urea supplier with an 8% market share, CF would face weaker pricing pressure if German capacity adds to market supply.
62% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Prices easeCanada carries the dominant 56.4% supply share on this AN node, so added German capacity can pressure incumbent Canadian AN output prices.
59% confidencePotassium Nitrate (KNO₃) — Specialty Fertilizer →Prices easeHaifa is the largest listed KNO3 supplier here, so added German supply should increase competition and pressure realized KNO3 prices.
56% confidenceHop 3
Rice →supply upUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
Rice is critically dependent on urea nitrogen fertilizer, so added fertilizer capacity should make this input more available to rice production.
94% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →supply upAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive
The added fertilizer capacity in Germany should directly increase AN availability in the market, easing tightness for a product ToAz supplies.
69% confidenceCanada →Prices riseSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash)
Germany's added fertilizer capacity should raise demand for potash feedstock, and Canada is the sole-source supplier here, so this input is likely to see firmer pricing.
61% confidenceYara International ASA →supply upAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining ExplosiveYAR
A new fertilizer plant in Germany plausibly increases AN availability, and Yara has a direct AN input dependency with moderate share and a six-month replacement lead time.
60% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices riseMore fertilizer output generally requires more ammonia in nitrogen-fertilizer chains, which can tighten ammonia availability and lift prices.
60% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices riseNatural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade)
Additional fertilizer capacity can raise feedstock demand for gas-based ammonia production, putting upward pressure on natural-gas feedstock costs.
58% confidenceNutrien Ltd. →supply upUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
The added fertilizer capacity in Germany plausibly increases urea availability, and Nutrien discloses a 5% dependence on this input with only a 3-month replacement lag, so the relief should be modest but real.
58% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →supply upUrea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N)
More fertilizer capacity in Germany should lift urea availability, though the impact depends on whether the new plant produces urea specifically.
56% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →supply upUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
Additional fertilizer production capacity in Europe likely increases UAN supply, but the exact product slate of the new investment is not stated.
54% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices riseSulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production
If the new capacity includes phosphate-fertilizer production, it increases sulfuric-acid consumption and can push acid demand higher.
49% confidenceUralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →supply upAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production)
If the German expansion includes ammonia-based fertilizer production, it modestly raises ammonia availability, though the product mix is not specified.
49% confidenceNutrien Ltd. →supply upUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
UAN is another proximate nitrogen fertilizer product that could gain from the added capacity, but the linkage is weaker because the edge provides less quantified dependency detail.
43% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices risePotash (Muriate of Potash / KCl)
Expanded fertilizer blending and potash-based formulations can raise potash demand, though the effect is moderated by a large global market.
42% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices risePhosphate Rock (Fluorapatite Ore)
Higher phosphate-fertilizer output increases upstream phosphate-rock throughput, but the transmission is partial because the market is broad and globally supplied.
40% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices riseElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)
More sulfuric-acid and phosphate-fertilizer production can raise sulfur demand, especially where sulfur is the precursor feedstock.
39% confidenceHop 4
Anhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →supply upPotash and phosphate fertilizers
Anhydrous ammonia is a critical feedstock for MAP/DAP, so extra supply should directly lift the availability of potash and phosphate fertilizer output.
96% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (NH₃) →supply upAnhydrous ammonia is a critical feedstock for fertilizers and crop inputs, so more ammonia availability directly increases supply in that segment.
93% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Stands to benefitYara has the largest stated exposure here, so more ammonia should materially ease feedstock constraints and improve its fertilizer production economics.
82% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Stands to benefitCF is a major fertilizer producer with a measurable ammonia-input exposure, so additional ammonia should modestly benefit its production flexibility.
75% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Stands to benefitNutrien Ltd.NTR
Nutrien also uses ammonia in fertilizer production, so greater supply should ease input availability and support output.
73% confidenceSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash) →supply upPotash and phosphate fertilizers
This brine-water input is a critical 0.7-strength dependency for potash and phosphate fertilizers, so greater availability of the input raises fertilizer output.
59% confidenceSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash) →Stands to benefitK+S accounts for 40% of this Saskatchewan input's supply and has a long 60-month replacement horizon, so easing this input constraint should benefit its operations.
55% confidenceSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash) →Stands to benefitNutrien Ltd.NTR
Nutrien depends heavily on this input (35% share) and also faces a long 60-month replacement lead time, so more input availability should help production.
54% confidenceSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash) →Stands to benefitCompass Minerals InternationalCMP
Compass Minerals has a smaller 15% share and somewhat better substitutability, so the benefit from easier access to this input is real but more limited.
48% confidenceSolution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash) →Stands to benefitMosaic still relies on this input, but its 10% share and somewhat higher substitutability make the upside smaller than for the larger producers.
47% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Rice · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Potash and phosphate fertilizers
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