Kuwait oil output at 75% of prewar as Hormuz transits rise
Reduced Kuwaiti oil output indicates a substantial cut in crude supply, even as transit through Hormuz increases.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Tengizchevroil (TCO) →Shortage riskElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)
If TCO's output is constrained, elemental sulfur from oil/gas processing becomes scarcer; the edge is only a 4% market-share supply with moderate substitutability, so the impact is real but limited.
67% confidenceTengizchevroil (TCO) →Shortage riskElemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock)
A reduction in TCO production would tighten elemental sulfur supply used as H2SO4 feedstock; this is a small-share, moderately substitutable stream, so the shortage is modest.
67% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskA severe crude-supply cut tightens the crude feedstock that supports jet fuel production, and this edge has strong stated dependency strength (0.75), so jet fuel availability is likely to fall.
Hop 2
Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage riskElemental sulfur is a critical feedstock for fertilizer and crop-input production, so a sulfur supply cut should directly tighten availability downstream.
95% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage riskSulfuric acid depends heavily on elemental sulfur, so reduced sulfur output should constrain sulfuric acid supply and raise downstream scarcity.
94% confidenceElemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock) →Shortage riskHop 3
Enterprise Products Partners →Shortage riskUGI Corporation (AmeriGas Propane)UGI
AmeriGas says about 18% of its propane supply comes from Enterprise, so a supply hit at Enterprise can directly tighten AmeriGas propane availability.
84% confidenceSulfuric acid →Prices easeElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)
A sulfuric-acid production cut reduces purchases of elemental sulfur, easing demand pressure in that input market despite its criticality and high dependency strength.
77% confidencePotash and phosphate fertilizers →Prices easeHop 4
Phosphate Rock (Fluorapatite Ore) →Shortage riskPhosphate rock is an explicitly critical input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so a phosphate-rock supply shock transmits directly as a shortage.
98% confidencePhosphate Rock (Sedimentary Apatite) →Shortage riskPotash and phosphate fertilizers
Phosphate rock is a critical input to potash and phosphate fertilizers, so a supply cut propagates almost directly into fertilizer scarcity.
96% confidenceAnhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Sulfuric acid · Potash and phosphate fertilizers · Propane (home use)
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.