Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →Shortage risk
Rare earth magnets
NdPr is a critical 0.98-dependency input to rare earth magnets, so an export disruption should make magnets scarcer.
97% confidence
Dysprosium (Dy) Metal →Shortage risk
Rare earth magnets
Dysprosium is a critical input for rare earth magnets, so a supply disruption in Dy metal directly tightens magnet availability.
96% confidence
Cerium Oxide (glass polishing compound) →Shortage risk
China
China holds 70% of this input's supply on this edge, so an export disruption there directly removes most of the available volume.
95% confidence
Mischmetal / Lanthanum (NiMH anode alloy) →Shortage risk
Household batteries
This edge has a 0.95 dependency strength and is marked critical, so a lanthanum/mischmetal disruption should transmit almost directly into tighter household battery supply.
95% confidence
Lanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Prices rise
Gasoline and diesel
Lanthanum oxide is a critical FCC additive with 0.85 dependency strength, so a supply squeeze transmits quickly into higher gasoline and diesel production costs.
94% confidence
NdFeB Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators →Shortage risk
China
China accounts for 85% of this input’s supply, so an export curb directly removes the dominant source and tightens global availability.
93% confidence
Terbium (Tb) Metal →Shortage risk
Rare earth magnets
Terbium metal is a critical input to rare earth magnets, so a terbium supply disruption directly constrains magnet production.
93% confidence
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder →Shortage risk
Rare earth magnets
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder is a critical upstream feedstock for rare earth magnets, so a supply squeeze makes the magnets themselves scarcer.
93% confidence
Rare Earth Oxides (Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb) →Delays
Home appliances
Home appliances are marked as a critical downstream user of rare earth oxides, so a China-driven squeeze on this input should lengthen production lead times.
89% confidence
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →Stands to benefit
MP Materials Corp.MP
With a 15% NdPr market share and a 24-month replacement lead time, MP Materials should gain pricing power as NdPr supply tightens.
84% confidence
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →Stands to benefit
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.
Lynas's 12% share and 36-month replacement lead time make it a likely beneficiary of tighter NdPr supply and higher prices.
82% confidence
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder →Delays
JL MAG Rare-Earth300760.SZ
JL MAG-Rare-Earth depends heavily on this input (22% share) and has low substitutability, so a disruption would likely push out production schedules.
82% confidence
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder →Delays
Shin-Etsu ChemicalSHECY
Shin-Etsu Chemical has a 10% share and a 42-month replacement lead time, so a disruption in this input would likely slow production.
80% confidence
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder →Delays
Zhong Ke San Huan (CNEEC)
With 12% share, low substitutability, and a multi-year replacement lead time, a tighter NdFeB powder supply would delay this producer's output.
79% confidence
Mischmetal / Lanthanum (NiMH anode alloy) →Stands to benefit
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.
As a non-Chinese supplier with a stated 10% share of this input, Lynas is positioned to absorb some displaced demand when Chinese supply is constrained.
75% confidence
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder →Delays
Advanced Technology & Materials (AT&M)
AT&M also carries an 8% share and limited substitutability, so an input squeeze would likely slow its manufacturing cadence.
74% confidence
Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) Oxide/Metal →Stands to benefit
Neo Performance Materials Inc.NEO.TO
Neo Performance Materials has a smaller but real NdPr supply share, so it can still gain from higher prices when Chinese exports are constrained.
74% confidence
Mischmetal / Lanthanum (NiMH anode alloy) →Stands to benefit
MP Materials Corp.MP
With a 5% supply share and long replacement times, MP Materials can gain from buyers seeking non-Chinese rare-earth supply.
73% confidence
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder →Delays
DMEGC Magnetics (Hengdian Group)
DMEGC Magnetics has an 8% share and low substitutability, so a constraint on this feedstock would likely create production delays.
73% confidence
NdFeB Alloy Strip Cast / Jet Mill Powder →Delays
Vacuumschmelze (VAC)
Vacuumschmelze has a smaller 3% share but very long 48-month replacement lead time, so any supply disruption still tends to delay output.
70% confidence
Mischmetal / Lanthanum (NiMH anode alloy) →Stands to benefit
Santoku Corporation
Santoku’s stated 6% share makes it a plausible substitute supplier that can benefit as Chinese supply is restricted.
70% confidence
NdFeB Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators →Stands to benefit
MP Materials Corp.MP
As a non-China supplier with a 15% share and long 36-month replacement lead time, MP Materials can capture some displaced demand when Chinese supply is restricted.
68% confidence
Lanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Stands to benefit
Lynas Rare Earths Ltd.
With 7% market share and an 18-month replacement lead time, Lynas is a plausible alternative supplier that can gain some diverted demand as Chinese supply tightens.
67% confidence
Lanthanum Oxide (FCC additive) →Stands to benefit
MP Materials Corp.MP
MP Materials has a smaller 4% share but still sits in the substitute-supplier set, so a China-driven rare-earth squeeze can modestly lift its demand and pricing power.
61% confidence
NdFeB Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine Generators →Stands to benefit
TDK Corporation6762.T
TDK is another non-China supplier of NdFeB magnets, so Chinese export disruption should lift demand for its limited output despite the long 24-month ramp.
60% confidence
