U.S. will discuss a world plan with sanctions on Russia
Potential sanctions on Russia could constrain exports and trade flows for affected goods and commodities.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Alrosa PJSC, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskHelium (Grade 5.0 / Fiber-Drawing Grade)
Gazprom's 9% share, very low substitutability, and 36-month replacement horizon make sanctions-driven export disruption likely to tighten helium supply.
84% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
A 15% share in this feedstock/fuel market with only moderate substitutability implies meaningful supply tightness if Gazprom export flows are constrained.
83% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskGazprom's 10% market share and 36-month replacement lead time suggest a real supply squeeze for gas used as roasting fuel.
80% confidenceAlrosa PJSC →Shortage riskSanctions on Russia would likely constrain Alrosa-linked diamond flows, and this edge carries a large 30% market share with a 24-month replacement lag, implying a material supply shortfall.
78% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
An 8% share and 48-month replacement horizon make this pipeline-grade gas market vulnerable to a sanctions-driven supply squeeze.
77% confidenceRosneft →Shortage riskSanctions on Rosneft can constrain its crude exports and trade flows, reducing availability of crude oil feedstock downstream, though it is only a 4% share and not a sole supplier.
74% confidenceRosneft →Shortage riskIf sanctions tighten Rosneft's export and trading channels, fuel-grade petroleum coke supply can tighten as well, but the effect is limited by its 3% market share and substitutability.
68% confidenceUnited Company RUSAL →DelaysAlumina (Aluminum Oxide, Al₂O₃)
If sanctions on Russia slow or disrupt RUSAL's trade and shipping routes, its alumina procurement can be delayed; the effect is modest because the edge weight is only 6% and supplier substitution is possible but takes about six months.
64% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is the critical Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, so a sanctions-driven gas shortfall sharply constrains ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer output.
98% confidenceAlumina (Aluminum Oxide, Al₂O₃) →Shortage riskAluminum and aluminum products
Alumina is a critical upstream input to aluminum products, so a sanctions-related route closure that tightens alumina supply should make the downstream good scarcer.
98% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →Prices riseHop 3
Canada →Shortage riskCanada supplies 82.6% of bitumen/asphalt binder, making it highly exposed to a Canada-node export shock.
79% confidenceCanada →Shortage riskCanada accounts for 87.6% of LAB supply, so a Canada-side trade disruption can materially reduce LAB availability.
78% confidenceCanada →Shortage riskCanada supplies 85.3% of this HDPE cable-jacketing compound, so Canadian trade disruption likely constrains availability.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Aluminum and aluminum products · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Jewelry · Coffee · Fiber optic cables and networking
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.