Ukraine struck at the Ufimsky refinery and disrupted 9.5 million tons of oil processing

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Crude Oil Feedstock, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Gasoline and diesel

   A refinery processing halt directly cuts output of these critical refined fuels, making them scarcer.

   97% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk

   Home heating oil

   Refinery disruption reduces heating-oil production, so availability tightens downstream.

   96% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   A refinery production halt directly cuts conversion of this feedstock into jet fuel, so downstream jet fuel availability tightens sharply.

2. Hop 2

   Jet fuel →Delays

   Refining and hydrotreatment

   The refinery strike directly disrupts the refining/hydrotreatment step required to produce jet fuel, so that process step is delayed.

   93% confidence

   Petroleum Coke (Fuel Grade) →Shortage risk

   Cement and concrete

   Fuel-grade petroleum coke is a critical input for cement/concrete production, so a sharp refinery-driven supply cut should tighten availability materially.

   87% confidence

   Lubricant Base Oils (Group I/II/III) for Engine Oil & Industrial Lubricants →Shortage risk

   Motor oil & lubricants

   Lubricant base oils are a critical feedstock for motor oil and industrial lubricants, so a refinery production halt materially tightens supply to that downstream good.

3. Hop 3

   Motor oil & lubricants →Shortage risk

   Lubricant Base Oils (Group I/II/III) for Engine Oil & Industrial Lubricants

   The refinery outage tightens the critical petroleum-derived base-oil feedstock used to make motor oil and industrial lubricants.

   93% confidence

   Motor oil & lubricants →Delays

   Base Oil Production

   A halt in oil processing directly slows the base-oil production step that feeds this lubricant chain.

   91% confidence

   Valero Energy →Prices ease

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   A refinery production halt directly cuts Valero's crude feedstock purchases, so Gulf Coast crude demand and prices should soften.

4. Hop 4

   Limestone (Cement Grade) →Shortage risk

   Cement and concrete

   Limestone is a critical 0.99-strength input to cement and concrete, so a disruption directly tightens downstream supply.

   98% confidence

   Limestone (Cement Grade) →Shortage risk

   CNBM (China National Building Material Group)3323.HK

   CNBM has the largest listed exposure here (13% share) and low substitutability, so limestone scarcity should constrain its cement production.

   84% confidence

   Limestone (Cement Grade) →Shortage risk

   Holcim Ltd.