Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Shortage risk
Propane (home use)
Propane home use depends almost entirely on the mixed NGL stream, so a disruption to regional NGL exports would tighten propane availability and likely lift prices.
95% confidence
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk
Gasoline and diesel
Crude oil feedstock is a critical refinery input, so a disruption to crude exports and shipping tightens gasoline and diesel availability.
95% confidence
Crude Oil Feedstock →Shortage risk
Home heating oil
Home heating oil depends directly on crude feedstock, so upstream crude disruption feeds through to tighter supply.
94% confidence
Lubricant Base Oils (Group I/II/III) for Engine Oil & Industrial Lubricants →Shortage risk
Motor oil & lubricants
Lubricant base oils are a critical, high-dependency input to motor oil and industrial lubricants, so a Middle East supply disruption would quickly tighten their availability.
93% confidence
Crude Oil Feedstock →Prices rise
Irving Oil
Irving Oil has low substitutability and a long replacement window for crude feedstock, so a supply shock raises its input costs and pressures margins.
84% confidence
Crude Oil Feedstock →Prices rise
PBF EnergyPBF
PBF Energy's refining operations rely on crude feedstock, so a Middle East supply disruption increases acquisition costs and can force lower utilization.
80% confidence
Diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power) →Shortage risk
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia accounts for 11% of this input's supply, so a Middle East export/shipping disruption can directly reduce available diesel and heavy fuel oil from that source.
75% confidence
Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage risk
Sulfuric acid
Sulfuric acid is directly dependent on elemental sulfur feedstock, so an upstream sulfur disruption should tighten acid supply.
70% confidence
Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage risk
Fertilizers and crop inputs
Elemental sulfur is a critical input to fertilizer and crop-input production, so a disruption to sulfur supply would make these products scarcer.
67% confidence
Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Shortage risk
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is a major 11.96% supply-share source for marine diesel and bunker fuel, and attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure and shipping routes would plausibly cut or delay that supply.
66% confidence
Diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power) →Shortage risk
Iraq
Iraq supplies 4.5% of this input, and regional infrastructure attacks can interrupt its exports of diesel and heavy fuel oil.
66% confidence
Diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power) →Shortage risk
United Arab Emirates
The UAE supplies 4.2% of this input, so a regional export/shipping disruption plausibly tightens its contribution to diesel and heavy fuel oil availability.
65% confidence
Diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power) →Shortage risk
Iran
Iran supplies 4% of this input, and the threatened attacks plus broader regional disruption can constrain that supply source as well.
64% confidence
Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Shortage risk
Iraq
Iraq has a meaningful supply share of marine diesel and bunker fuel, and the headline's regional infrastructure threat implies its export flows could be constrained.
61% confidence
Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Shortage risk
United Arab Emirates
The UAE is a regional supply-share source for marine diesel and bunker fuel, so Middle East shipping or infrastructure attacks could tighten or delay its supply contribution.
59% confidence
Amine Desulfurization Chemicals →Prices rise
Gasoline and diesel
If amine desulfurization chemicals become harder or more expensive to source amid Middle East infrastructure disruption, refinery costs rise and gasoline/diesel prices are pushed up.
58% confidence
Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Shortage risk
Iran
Iran is both in the threatened region and a supply-share source for marine diesel and bunker fuel, so infrastructure attacks or retaliatory disruptions could reduce its export availability.
57% confidence
Amine Desulfurization Chemicals →Prices rise
Home heating oil
The same input squeeze raises production costs for home heating oil, though the graph shows a weaker dependency than for gasoline and diesel.
50% confidence
