US seeks $11 billion fertilizer deal from Russia
A large proposed fertilizer trade deal could materially shift cross-border supply of fertilizer products.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Fertilizers and crop inputs, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Potash (Muriate of Potash, MOP — KCl) →Stands to benefitA deal that expands Russian fertilizer exports would directly raise demand for Russia as a potash supplier, and Russia already has a material share of supply in the graph.
82% confidenceEuroChem Group →supply upAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive
EuroChem has a meaningful share of ammonium nitrate supply, so a larger Russia-US fertilizer trade could increase export volumes and make this product more available.
77% confidencePotash (Muriate of Potash, MOP — KCl) →Stands to benefitUralkali is a Russian potash producer, so larger Russian export volumes into the U.S. would likely lift its sales and utilization.
Hop 2
Potash (Muriate of Potash / KCl) →supply upPotash is a critical input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so a Russia-linked trade deal that expands potash supply would raise availability of the broader good.
84% confidenceRussia →supply upUAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
Russia accounts for 53.8% of this fertilizer input's country supply share, so a larger U.S.-Russia fertilizer deal would materially increase its availability.
84% confidencePotash (Muriate of Potash / KCl) →Stands to benefitHop 3
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Stands to benefitA Russia-centered fertilizer import deal would most directly raise Russian-origin UAN flows, and Russia already accounts for 53.8% of this input's supply share.
90% confidenceRice →supply upUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
A larger Russia-linked fertilizer deal directly increases availability of a critical, high-dependency input for rice production.
84% confidenceCF Industries Holdings →Prices ease
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Fertilizers and crop inputs · Potash and phosphate fertilizers · Rice
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.