Putin signs laws on control of departed Russian and foreign companies
Tighter state control over exiting firms can affect production and operations of affected companies in Russia.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Alrosa PJSC, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Alrosa PJSC →Shortage riskTighter state control can constrain ALROSA's operations, and this edge indicates a large, hard-to-replace 30% supply relationship with a 24-month replacement lead time, so diamond availability is likely to fall.
89% confidenceTENEX (JSC Techsnabexport) →Shortage riskLow-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel
TENEX supplies a large share of LEU nuclear fuel (27%); tighter state control over the company can disrupt production and export operations, making LEU scarcer downstream.
79% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production
This is closest to Gazprom's core output, so tighter control that impairs operations would directly curtail wellhead production supply.
69% confidenceTENEX (JSC Techsnabexport) →Shortage riskCarbon-13 (C-13) Stable Isotope (Medical Diagnostics & Pharmaceutical)
TENEX accounts for a substantial share of C-13 supply (45%), so nationalization-related operational interference can reduce availability of this medical/pharmaceutical isotope.
69% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskHelium (Grade 5.0 / Fiber-Drawing Grade)
If tighter state control slows Gazprom's output, this low-substitutability helium stream would become scarcer, and the 36-month replacement time makes the disruption sizable.
66% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Gazprom is a large supplier here, so any operational drag from state control would tighten this natural-gas stream and leave downstream users short.
64% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
A production or logistics disruption at Gazprom would reduce availability of pipeline-grade methane, with long replacement lead times limiting substitution.
62% confidenceRosneft →Prices easeIf tighter state control slows Rosneft's operations, it should buy less crude feedstock, easing demand in that input market.
55% confidenceRosneft →Prices easeAny Rosneft operating slowdown would also reduce purchases of fuel-grade petroleum coke, putting modest downward pressure on that input's price.
47% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical feedstock and fuel for ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer production, so a supply shock to gas should directly constrain fertilizer output.
96% confidenceNatural gas wellhead production →Shortage riskThis is a critical dependency with dependency_strength=1, so a production shock at natural gas wellhead production transmits directly into tighter home gas availability.
86% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Prices riseYara depends heavily on natural gas input (20% share) with low substitutability and a long replacement lead time, so tighter gas supply likely raises its production costs.
84% confidenceLow-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel →Shortage riskLEU is a critical nuclear-fuel input, so a Russian supply disruption can reduce reactor availability or force output curtailments, tightening residential electricity supply.
83% confidencePetroleum Coke (Fuel Grade) →Prices riseFuel-grade petroleum coke is a critical input for cement and concrete, so a Rosneft-linked supply squeeze primarily raises fuel costs for this downstream sector.
82% confidenceCut & Polished Diamonds →Shortage riskCut & polished diamonds are a critical, high-dependency input to jewelry, so a squeeze in diamond processing availability would reduce jewelry supply.
82% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Prices riseCF Industries has a direct natural-gas input dependency and low substitutability, so a gas market shock should push its input costs higher.
80% confidenceNatural gas wellhead production →Shortage riskRussian state control over exiting firms can directly reduce Russia's share of natural gas wellhead production, and Russia is a large contributor to this input.
78% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Prices riseEuroChem is exposed to natural gas as an input, and with limited substitutability a gas disruption should increase its operating costs.
73% confidenceCarbon-13 (C-13) Stable Isotope (Medical Diagnostics & Pharmaceutical) →Shortage riskDiagnostic tests and lab supplies
Carbon-13 is a meaningful input into diagnostic and lab-supply production, so a Russian-sourced supply disruption would tighten availability for downstream products.
67% confidenceLow-Enriched Uranium (LEU) Nuclear Fuel →Stands to benefitAs a low-substitutability LEU supplier with a 10% share and a 36-month replacement horizon, Urenco can capture some displaced demand when Russian supply is constrained.
66% confidenceNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →Shortage riskResidential electricity is highly dependent on pipeline-grade natural gas, so an upstream gas supply disruption can tighten power supply.
64% confidenceCarbon-13 (C-13) Stable Isotope (Medical Diagnostics & Pharmaceutical) →Stands to benefitCambridge Isotope Laboratories (CIL)
As a 20% alternative supplier of Carbon-13 with partial substitutability, CIL can capture some displaced demand if Russian TENEX supply is constrained, though long replacement lead times limit the upside.
53% confidenceCarbon-13 (C-13) Stable Isotope (Medical Diagnostics & Pharmaceutical) →Stands to benefitMerck KGaA (MilliporeSigma in US)MRK
Merck is an established but smaller Carbon-13 supplier, so some diverted demand can flow its way if Russian supply tightens, but the benefit is capped by modest share and substitution frictions.
50% confidenceHop 3
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer output is heavily dependent on natural gas, so a production/operations hit reduces gas consumption and leaves more gas available elsewhere.
81% confidenceEuroChem Group →Prices easeAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive
If EuroChem's output is disrupted, demand for ammonium nitrate used in its operations would soften, creating downward price pressure in that input market.
67% confidenceCF Industries Holdings →Shortage riskCHS is CF Industries' largest customer and accounts for about 13% of consolidated net sales, so a CF production disruption can tighten supply to CHS.
66% confidenceEuroChem Group →Prices easeUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
A production hit at EuroChem would reduce its draw on urea fertilizer, which would tend to depress urea prices through weaker demand.
66% confidenceEuroChem Group →Prices easeNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
If EuroChem's operations are constrained, its purchases of natural gas as a feedstock/fuel fall, easing demand and putting downward pressure on gas prices.
64% confidenceNatural gas (home) →Stands to benefitUnderground natural gas storage (depleted fields & salt caverns)
Domestic gas tightness increases withdrawals from storage, making storage capacity more valuable as a buffer.
63% confidenceNatural gas (home) →Stands to benefitLNG peak-shaving and import facilities
When pipeline-fed gas is constrained, LNG peak-shaving and import capacity becomes a substitute supply route and gains utilization.
60% confidenceCement and concrete →Prices easeIf cement and concrete output is squeezed, its most critical input sees weaker demand and softer pricing.
58% confidenceJewelry →Stands to benefitWith mined diamond supply constrained by tighter control over exiting firms, jewelers can substitute toward lab-grown diamonds, which gain demand as an alternative.
44% confidenceCambridge Isotope Laboratories (CIL) →Prices easeCarbon-13 (C-13) Stable Isotope (Medical Diagnostics & Pharmaceutical)
If CIL's isotope operations are curtailed by the upstream shock, its purchases of Carbon-13 would likely fall, putting some downward pressure on that input's demand and price.
41% confidenceHop 4
CHS Inc. →Prices easeCF Industries Holdings, Inc.CF
CHS was CF Industries' largest customer and accounted for about 13% of CF's consolidated net sales, so a hit to CHS would likely reduce CF's sales volume and pricing power.
84% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage riskEuroChem is already on the path as the producer tied to ammonium nitrate, so tighter Russian control can disrupt its AN output and availability.
76% confidenceUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →Prices riseUrea nitrogen fertilizer is a critical, high-dependency input for rice production, so Russian fertilizer supply constraints are likely to raise rice growers' costs and rice prices.
76% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage riskRussia accounts for 20% of ammonium nitrate supply on this edge, so a state-control shock can directly reduce that national supply share.
73% confidenceUnderground natural gas storage (depleted fields & salt caverns) →Shortage riskIf underground storage is constrained, residential gas availability tightens because this node is marked as a critical input to home gas supply.
68% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage riskAmmonium nitrate is a core fertilizer and mining input, so less AN tightens the broader fertilizer and crop input category.
67% confidenceLab-Grown Diamonds (CVD/HPHT) →supply upJewelry depends on lab-grown diamonds for 60% of its input supply, so a substitution-driven easing in lab-grown diamond availability would materially relieve jewelry's input constraints.
44% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Natural gas (home) · Residential Electricity · Cement and concrete · Jewelry · Diagnostic tests and lab supplies · Electricity (residential) · Rice · Fertilizers and crop inputs
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.