HKM in Duisburg: when the steelmakers switch off their furnace for good
A permanent furnace shutdown would remove steelmaking capacity at Duisburg, reducing output of steel products.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from ThyssenKrupp Steel Europe, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Thyssenkrupp Rasselstein →Shortage riskIf the Duisburg furnace shutdown constrains Rasselstein's steel feed, its 8% ETP supply tightens for customers, with only moderate substitutability and a multi-month replacement lead time.
69% confidenceTATA Metaliks →Shortage riskDuctile iron pipe and fittings (DIP)
If TATA Metaliks is constrained, its 5% share of DIP supply would modestly reduce availability, with only partial substitutability and a 9-month replacement lead time limiting immediate backfill.
62% confidenceHop 2
Electrolytic Tinplate (ETP) →Shortage riskETP is a critical packaging input for canned and shelf-stable foods, so a permanent Duisburg output loss should tighten supply to that sector.
94% confidenceDuctile iron pipe and fittings (DIP) →Shortage riskDuctile iron pipe and fittings is marked as a critical, high-dependency input for water infrastructure supplies (dependency_strength 0.88), so a steel-output shock that tightens DIP availability should constrain that downstream good.
84% confidenceElectrolytic Tinplate (ETP) →Stands to benefitHop 3
Water infrastructure supplies →Shortage riskResilient-wedge gate valves and fire hydrants
A permanent Duisburg steel output loss should make these critical iron/steel waterworks inputs harder to source.
84% confidenceTata Steel Europe →Shortage riskA permanent furnace shutdown at Tata Steel Europe would directly cut its ETP output, and the 11% share plus 6-month replacement lead time indicate a material supply loss.
80% confidenceCanned and shelf-stable foods →Prices easeHop 4
Advanced high-strength steel (AHSS) and ultra-HSS sheets →Shortage riskA permanent shutdown cuts AHSS and ultra-HSS sheet availability, and vehicles and light trucks are marked as critically dependent on this input (dependency_strength=0.8).
95% confidenceHot-dip galvanized steel →Shortage riskHot-dip galvanized steel is a critical input to irrigation equipment, so a permanent steel output cut should reduce equipment availability.
94% confidenceHot-dip galvanized steel →Shortage riskHop 5
Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. →Prices easeThe furnace shutdown cuts steel-product output, and the path already routes through tinplate/canned foods into refined tin, so demand for Yunnan Tin's refined tin should soften and pressure prices lower; Yunnan Tin supplies about 25% of refined tin with only moderate substitutability.
67% confidence
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Canned and shelf-stable foods · Water infrastructure supplies · Vehicles and light trucks · Irrigation equipment · Vitamins & dietary supplements · Frozen foods · Breakfast cereal & grains · Soft drinks & juices
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.