The cost of the energy war was heavy: gas prices in Europe have tripled
European natural gas prices have surged sharply, reflecting a major disruption in gas supply and flow.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from IGas Energy / European NGL Producers, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Equinor ASA →Stands to benefitEquinor quarterly profits
Higher European gas prices helped Equinor’s results, so the company is a clear beneficiary of the price spike.
“Norway’s state oil company almost doubled its quarterly profits as the US-Israeli war on Iran choked off supplies from the Gulf and sent oil and gas prices soaring, allowing it to offer more cash to shareholders while cutting back on renewables.”
96% confidenceCited →Equinor ASA →Prices riseNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Natural gas is a direct feedstock/fuel here, and Equinor’s 8% share plus the Europe-wide gas price spike makes a meaningful cost increase likely.
86% confidenceEquinor ASA →Prices riseHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
This downstream good depends almost entirely on natural gas as a feedstock and fuel, so gas supply disruption directly tightens its availability.
97% confidenceR600a Isobutane Refrigerant →Shortage riskR600a is a critical refrigerant input to home appliances, so a supply/cost shock in R600a can curtail appliance production.
92% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Prices riseHop 3
Yara International ASA →Prices riseAmmonia production is gas-intensive for Yara, so the European gas price spike directly raises ammonia costs and market prices.
88% confidenceCF Industries Holdings →Prices riseAs CF's largest customer at about 13% of consolidated net sales, CHS is exposed to higher fertilizer prices if CF passes through its higher natural-gas costs.
86% confidenceCF Industries Holdings →Prices riseCF's natural-gas feedstock cost shock directly lifts ammonia production costs, and the low substitutability plus long replacement lead time make price transmission material.
Hop 4
Natural gas wellhead production →Prices riseNatural gas wellhead production is a critical, fully dependent input to household gas, so a supply/flow disruption passes through almost one-for-one as sharply higher end-user prices.
98% confidenceUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →Shortage riskUrea nitrogen fertilizer is a critical, high-dependency input to rice production, so a fertilizer supply shock can constrain rice output.
90% confidenceAmmonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Home appliances · Coffee · Natural gas (home) · Rice · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Gasoline and diesel
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.