Kazakhstan: Oil production fell 8.9% in the first seven months of 2026

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Tengizchevroil (TCO), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Tengizchevroil (TCO) →Shortage risk

   Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)

   Lower TCO throughput should reduce byproduct sulfur output, and its 4% market share plus non-sole status imply a modest but real supply hit.

   75% confidence

   Tengizchevroil (TCO) →Shortage risk

   Elemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock)

   A production dip at TCO should also trim sulfur available for sulfuric-acid feedstock, but the 4% share and moderate substitutability keep the effect limited.

   72% confidence

   Tengizchevroil (TCO) →Shortage risk

   LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas — Propane + Butane)

   TCO's lower oil/gas output likely reduces LPG coproduct supply, but the 1% share and high substitutability make the market impact small.

   70% confidence

2. Hop 2

   Elemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock) →Shortage risk

   Potash and phosphate fertilizers

   Elemental sulfur is a critical H2SO4 feedstock for phosphate fertilizer production, so a sulfur supply hit can directly constrain fertilizer output.

   91% confidence

   Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage risk

   Fertilizers and crop inputs

   Sulfur is a critical feedstock for fertilizer and crop-input production, so a sulfur supply drop tightens that market.

   86% confidence

   Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage risk

   Sulfuric acid

3. Hop 3

   Canada →Shortage risk

   United States Antimony Corp.UAMY

   UAMY says most of its antimony ore has historically come from one supplier in Canada, so a Canada-side disruption would quickly constrain feedstock.

   86% confidence

   Canada →Shortage risk

   Solution Mining Brine Water (Saskatchewan Potash)

   Canada is the sole listed source in the graph for this input, so any Canada supply disruption would directly tighten availability.

   80% confidence

   Canada →Shortage risk

   Argon Gas (insulating glass fill)

4. Hop 4

   Anhydrous Ammonia (NH₃) →Shortage risk

   Fertilizers and crop inputs

   Anhydrous ammonia is a critical input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so a shortage here transmits strongly into that good.

   97% confidence

   Sulfuric Acid (H₂SO₄) for Phosphate Fertilizer Production →Shortage risk

   Fertilizers and crop inputs

   Sulfuric acid is a critical phosphate-fertilizer input, so a supply shock here tightens the broader fertilizer and crop-input bucket.

   97% confidence

   Natural Gas (Ammonia/Fertilizer Feedstock Grade) →Shortage risk

   Fertilizers and crop inputs