EU to phase out Russian gas by end-2027
A phased exit from Russian gas implies a major rerouting and replacement of gas supply into Europe.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Equinor ASA →supply upAs Europe phases out Russian gas, Equinor's generic natural-gas supply is a plausible substitute and can be redirected into European markets, increasing availability of this input.
79% confidenceGazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
Gazprom's pipeline-grade gas is the closest match to the EU phase-out of Russian gas; the edge shows an 8% share and a 48-month replacement lead time, so supply into this channel should tighten.
79% confidenceEquinor ASA →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
EU’s exit from Russian gas should redirect replacement demand toward non-Russian suppliers like Equinor, making this natural-gas stream more available for industrial uses.
72% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseNatural gas wellhead production
EU’s phase-out of Russian gas should tighten and reprice non-Russian gas supply, and BP’s disclosed 3.5% share in natural gas wellhead production means it participates in that market, though the transmission is only moderate because the share is small and substitutes exist.
71% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →Shortage riskThe EU phase-out directly removes Russian gas volumes from this supply pool, reducing Russia's export demand.
94% confidenceNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane) →Shortage riskGazprom (ПАО Газпром)GAZP.MM
Gazprom's gas sales are directly displaced by the phase-out, squeezing its European volumes and revenue.
91% confidenceNatural Gas →Prices riseNatural gas is a critical 0.8-weighted input to industrial gases, so Europe's replacement demand should lift its input costs.
Hop 3
Norway →supply upNorway is a meaningful alternative gas supplier, so rerouting away from Russian gas should raise Norwegian natural-gas availability.
78% confidenceNorway →supply upNatural Gas for Yankee Dryer and Steam Generation
As Russian gas is phased out, Norway's 20% supply share makes this industrial gas use a likely beneficiary of replacement supply.
74% confidenceQatarEnergy →supply upNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
As Europe phases out Russian gas, QatarEnergy can act as a substitute supplier, modestly increasing pipeline-gas availability despite only a 5% market share and long expansion lead times.
Hop 4
Natural Gas for Yankee Dryer and Steam Generation →Prices easeRussia supplies 14.39% of this input and is the displaced incumbent under the EU phase-out, so its sales/price are pushed down.
90% confidenceNatural Gas for Yankee Dryer and Steam Generation →Prices riseNatural gas for Yankee dryers and steam is a critical 85% input to paper and household products, so replacing Russian gas into Europe likely raises this input's cost and passes through to the good.
86% confidenceInterstate natural gas transmission pipelines →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Industrial gases · Electricity (residential) · Paper and household products · Natural gas (home)
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