Europe loses 30 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia in 2027
Europe is projected to lose a large volume of Russian gas supply in 2027, tightening natural gas availability.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Gazprom (ПАО Газпром), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gazprom (ПАО Газпром) →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
Gazprom’s loss of roughly 30 bcm of European gas exports in 2027 directly tightens pipeline-grade natural gas supply, and this edge already encodes an 8% market share with long replacement lead time.
97% confidenceEquinor ASA →Stands to benefitNorwegian gas demand
Europe's 2027 Russian-gas cutoff tightens supply and redirects buyers toward non-Russian gas; Equinor's CEO said customers are increasingly entering long-term contracts for Norwegian gas, so Equinor benefits.
“growing trend amongst customers to enter into long-term contracts for Norwegian gas”
84% confidenceCited →Equinor ASA →Prices riseEurope's 30 bcm Russian gas shortfall tightens the gas market, making Equinor's natural-gas input more expensive to secure, with only moderate substitutability and a three-month replacement lag.
76% confidenceBP plc →Prices riseNatural gas wellhead production
The projected loss of Russian gas tightens gas markets, so BP's natural-gas input is likely to face higher prices rather than an immediate outright shortage, with only moderate substitutability.
57% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas →Prices riseSEMPRASRE
Sempra has already disclosed that higher natural gas prices lifted its costs, so the shortage pushes costs higher.
95% confidenceNatural gas wellhead production →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production is the critical, one-to-one upstream input, so a 30 bcm Russian supply loss directly makes end-use natural gas scarcer.
95% confidenceNatural Gas →Prices easeEurope's loss of 30 bcm from Russia directly cuts off part of the Russian supply share, pressuring export volumes and realized prices.
Hop 3
Norway →Prices riseThe Russian gas shortfall tightens the European gas market, so Norway's supplied natural gas faces upward price pressure.
84% confidenceNorway →Prices riseNatural Gas for Yankee Dryer and Steam Generation
With gas markets tighter, Norway's 20% share of natural gas used for steam generation and Yankee dryers becomes more expensive.
77% confidenceNorway →Prices riseNatural Gas (glass furnace fuel)
Higher gas prices transmit to Norway's 15% share of natural gas used as glass-furnace fuel.
Hop 4
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Shortage riskAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, so a 30 bcm Russian supply loss should directly tighten ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer output.
97% confidenceNatural Gas for Yankee Dryer and Steam Generation →Shortage riskNatural gas is a critical drying and steam input for paper mills, so tighter gas availability should constrain output and raise costs for paper and household products.
96% confidenceNatural Gas (glass furnace fuel) →Shortage riskHop 5
Paper and household products →DelaysYankee Drying & Creping
The gas shortage tightens steam and fuel availability at the Yankee drying stage, slowing tissue-line throughput.
77% confidencePaper and household products →Prices easeNBSK Virgin Softwood Pulp (Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft)
If paper and household-products output is curtailed by energy scarcity, demand for this critical virgin pulp input weakens.
68% confidencePaper and household products →Prices easeBEKP Eucalyptus Pulp (Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp)
A production slowdown at the paper maker reduces purchases of this major pulp input, pressuring its price.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Natural gas (home) · Electricity (residential) · Industrial gases · Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Paper and household products · Glass and windows · Tableware & dishware
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.