Gulf Oil Exports Rebound to Prewar Levels, Despite Iranian Attacks
Recovered Gulf crude export flows indicate restored supply volumes despite earlier attack-related disruption.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upThe feedstock-to-jet-fuel edge is highly critical, so recovered crude feedstock volumes should translate into more jet fuel availability, though the effect is not unlimited by downstream refining bottlenecks.
83% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upSaudi Arabia is a Gulf crude supplier in this import mix, and the cited reports say Hormuz crude flows are back at prewar levels, implying more available export supply.
69% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →supply upIraq is also a Gulf crude supplier, so restored prewar-level Gulf export flows should increase the availability of Iraqi crude flowing into the import basket.
Hop 2
Saudi Arabia →supply upDiesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power)
Saudi Arabia supplies 11% of this fuel pool, so restored crude/export flows should improve downstream fuel availability.
88% confidenceSaudi Arabia →supply upThis is a direct petroleum product and Saudi Arabia accounts for 11.96% of supply, so recovered exports should raise availability.
88% confidenceSaudi Arabia →supply upHop 3
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upRecovered crude feedstock directly increases availability of gasoline and diesel, which are critical downstream outputs of this input.
97% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upRecovered crude feedstock directly increases availability of home heating oil, another critical downstream product.
96% confidenceBitumen / Asphalt Binder →supply upBitumen / asphalt binder is a critical, high-dependency input to asphalt and paving materials, so restored Gulf crude export flows should raise binder availability for downstream paving output.
Hop 4
Home heating oil →supply upRecovered Gulf crude export flows directly increase availability of the critical crude feedstock used to produce home heating oil.
94% confidenceGasoline and diesel →supply upRecovered Gulf crude exports directly raise the availability of the critical crude feedstock required to make gasoline and diesel.
90% confidenceSulfuric acid →supply upElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)
Recovered Gulf crude export flows imply restored oil/gas processing activity, which should increase elemental sulfur output and ease supply for sulfuric acid, a critical input with 70% dependency strength on this edge.
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Asphalt and paving materials · Propane (home use) · Sulfuric acid · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Seafood and fish · Palladium and platinum group metals · Cement and concrete
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.