Uralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage risk
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive
If ToAz output is constrained by the gas/ammonia shock, ammonium nitrate supply tightens; the 8% market share and 6-month replacement lead time make the effect material.
80% confidence
Potash and phosphate fertilizers →Prices ease
Potash Ore — Muriate of Potash (MOP / KCl)
The 0.95 dependency implies fertilizer production cuts should sharply weaken pull on potash ore, tending to lower its price.
72% confidence
Potash and phosphate fertilizers →Prices ease
Phosphate Rock (Sedimentary Apatite)
This fertilizer node has a critical 0.95 dependency on phosphate rock, so lower fertilizer output should materially reduce phosphate rock demand and pressure its price down.
72% confidence
CF Industries Holdings →Shortage risk
Anhydrous Ammonia (NH₃)
CF Industries' anhydrous ammonia supply is a long-lead dependency with limited substitutability, so the upstream gas disruption can tighten availability.
70% confidence
Uralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz) →Shortage risk
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N)
ToAz disruption would reduce UAN availability, and moderate substitutability with a 3-month replacement window suggests a real but smaller shortage.
68% confidence
Potash and phosphate fertilizers →Prices ease
Sulfuric Acid (Wet Process Phosphoric Acid)
With an 0.85 critical input dependency, reduced fertilizer throughput should cut sulfuric-acid demand and soften prices.
68% confidence
CF Industries Holdings →Prices rise
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
CF Industries relies on natural gas as a core Haber-Bosch feedstock and fuel, and the low substitutability plus 24-month replacement lead time make a gas-cost shock material.
67% confidence
Potash and phosphate fertilizers →Prices ease
Elemental Sulfur (H2SO4 Feedstock)
Because elemental sulfur feeds sulfuric acid and the fertilizer chain is already constrained, sulfur demand should ease and prices can drift lower.
64% confidence
Potash and phosphate fertilizers →Prices ease
Panamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight
Lower fertilizer volumes mean less bulk export tonnage, which should soften freight demand and rates on these vessel classes.
60% confidence
Koch Fertilizer / Koch Ag & Energy Solutions →Prices rise
Ammonia (NH3)
The graph shows Koch Fertilizer / Koch Ag & Energy Solutions depends on ammonia input, and the Nord Stream sabotage tightens natural-gas-based ammonia supply, pushing ammonia costs higher.
56% confidence
Nutrien Ltd. →Prices rise
Alico, Inc.ALCO
Alico discloses Nutrien AG Solutions among its key suppliers for fertilizer, herbicides, and insecticides, so ammonia-driven disruption at Nutrien can pass through as higher input costs to Alico.
53% confidence
