Iraq takes precautionary measures after attacks on the oil pipeline; border with Iran closed

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage risk

   Saudi Arabia

   Saudi Arabia accounts for 4.9% of Canadian crude oil imports, and its critical pipeline was temporarily shut after attacks, so that import slice can tighten.

   72% confidence

   Canadian crude oil imports →Shortage risk

   Jet fuel

   Canadian crude oil imports are a strong input into jet fuel (dependency strength 0.75), so a crude-import shortfall can ripple into tighter jet-fuel supply.

   66% confidence

   Pipeline Steel (Large-Diameter Line Pipe) →Stands to benefit

   Tenaris S.A.TS

   Pipeline damage and closure can prompt urgent line-pipe replacement orders, and Tenaris is a major supplier with a 20% share.

2. Hop 2

   Saudi Arabia →Shortage risk

   Amine Desulfurization Chemicals

   Saudi Arabia supplies 39.3% of this input, so disruption to regional export or production logistics can materially tighten availability.

   80% confidence

   Saudi Arabia →Shortage risk

   Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel

   Saudi Arabia supplies 11.96% of this shipping fuel, so route disruption can tighten bunker availability.

   76% confidence

   Saudi Arabia →Shortage risk

   Diesel and Heavy Fuel Oil (underground mining and backup power)

3. Hop 3

   Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →Shortage risk

   Asphalt and paving materials

   Bitumen / Asphalt Binder is a critical 95%-strength input to Asphalt and paving materials, so any route-closure-driven binder disruption would quickly make downstream paving materials scarcer.

   74% confidence

   Marine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Shortage risk

   Seafood and fish

   Marine diesel and bunker fuel is a critical input to seafood and fish, so a route-closure shock that tightens fuel availability can reduce fishing and transport capacity and make seafood/fish scarcer.

   71% confidence

   Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →Delays

   Iran

4. Hop 4

   Gasoline and diesel →Shortage risk

   Crude Oil Feedstock

   A route closure that disrupts crude flows directly constrains the fully dependent crude oil feedstock used to make gasoline and diesel.

   93% confidence

   Gasoline and diesel →Delays

   Crude Transportation — Pipeline & Marine

   The pipeline attack and border closure directly slow or block the transport leg that moves crude into refining, delaying gasoline and diesel production.

   84% confidence

   Iran →Delays

   Gypsum (Natural & Synthetic FGD)

   Iran supplies 10% of this gypsum stream, so a closed border can delay bulk shipments and tighten near-term availability.