Urea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →Shortage risk
Rice
Rice depends critically on urea nitrogen fertilizer as a key input, so a fertilizer supply shock can reduce yields and tighten rice availability.
97% confidence
Anhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Shortage risk
Potash and phosphate fertilizers
Anhydrous ammonia is a critical input for MAP/DAP fertilizer production, so a supply shock should tighten fertilizer output and availability.
93% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Prices rise
Fertilizers and crop inputs
Ammonium nitrate is a core fertilizer input, so its scarcity should lift prices across the broader fertilizers and crop inputs category.
83% confidence
Anhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Prices rise
Yara International ASAYAR
Yara is a direct ammonia user with a 15% share and only moderate substitutability, so its ammonia input costs should rise.
78% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage risk
Uralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz)
An 8% share with only moderate substitutability and a 6-month replacement lead time means the ammonium nitrate shock should bite fairly directly here.
77% confidence
Ammonia (NH3) →Prices rise
CF Industries HoldingsCF
CF Industries depends on ammonia as an input, so tighter ammonia supply should push its input costs higher.
76% confidence
Ammonia (NH3) →Prices rise
Koch Fertilizer / Koch Ag & Energy Solutions
Ammonia is a direct input to Koch Fertilizer, and the moderate substitutability plus six-month replacement lag imply higher procurement costs when ammonia tightens.
73% confidence
Anhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Prices rise
CF Industries HoldingsCF
CF Industries has meaningful ammonia exposure and only partial substitutability, so tighter ammonia supply should raise its feedstock costs.
72% confidence
Anhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Prices rise
Nutrien Ltd.NTR
Nutrien also depends on ammonia feedstock, so reduced availability should push up its production costs, though the share is smaller.
70% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage risk
EuroChem Group AG
EuroChem's 9% share, moderate substitutability, and 9-month replacement lead time make an ammonium nitrate shock likely to constrain its supply.
69% confidence
Ammonia (NH3) →Prices rise
Nutrien Ltd.NTR
Nutrien uses ammonia as an input, so the ammonia squeeze passes through as higher procurement costs.
68% confidence
Ammonia (NH3) →Prices rise
Yara International ASAYAR
Yara is linked as an ammonia input consumer here, so the upstream gas shock should raise its feedstock costs.
67% confidence
Ammonia (NH3) →Prices rise
Industrial gases
Ammonia is a listed supply input to industrial gases, so a tighter ammonia market raises their costs.
65% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Prices rise
CF Industries HoldingsCF
CF's 7% share makes it exposed, but the shorter 3-month replacement window and moderate substitutability make the main effect higher input cost rather than outright shortage.
62% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Prices rise
Nutrien Ltd.NTR
Nutrien's 6% share and 3-month replacement lead time suggest a meaningful cost impact from ammonium nitrate scarcity, but not the strongest shortage risk.
60% confidence
Ammonia (NH3) →Stands to benefit
Canada
Canada holds 61.9% of the ammonia supply share, so a market squeeze is likely to shift demand and pricing power toward Canadian supply.
56% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Prices rise
Grupa AzotyATT
Grupa Azoty's smaller 4% share means the ammonium nitrate shock is present but mostly shows up as higher input prices.
56% confidence
Ammonia (NH3) →Stands to benefit
Trinidad and Tobago
Trinidad and Tobago accounts for 30.9% of the ammonia supply share, so it should capture some of the diverted demand and higher prices.
53% confidence
