U.S.-Facilitated Hormuz Transits Help Lift Gulf Crude Exports Above 10 Million Bpd

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply up

   Jet fuel

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock is a critical direct input to jet fuel, so easier Hormuz transit that raises feedstock availability should lift jet fuel supply materially.

   96% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply up

   ExxonMobilXOM

   ExxonMobil has a sizeable direct input share, so more available feedstock should ease its constraint and support higher throughput.

   79% confidence

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply up

   Valero EnergyVLO

2. Hop 2

   Potash and phosphate fertilizers →supply up

   Panamax / Capesize Bulk Vessel Freight

   Easing Hormuz transits increases available bulk-vessel freight capacity and reduces congestion for fertilizer shipments, a direct input to potash and phosphate fertilizer production.

   90% confidence

   Jet fuel →supply up

   Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)

   Improved Hormuz transits raise Gulf crude exports, easing the crude-feedstock bottleneck that supplies jet fuel production.

   89% confidence

   Potash and phosphate fertilizers →supply up

   Bulk Export Logistics

   The same shipping relief makes bulk export logistics for fertilizer cargoes more available and less constrained.

3. Hop 3

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Gasoline and diesel

   Crude feedstock is a critical, fully dependent input for gasoline and diesel, so higher feedstock supply should lift output availability.

   96% confidence

   Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →supply up

   Propane (home use)

   Mixed NGL stream is a critical direct input to home-use propane, so better availability should materially lift propane supply.

   95% confidence

   Crude Oil Feedstock →supply up

   Home heating oil

   Home heating oil is likewise a critical downstream product of crude feedstock, so easing the input bottleneck should increase supply.

4. Hop 4

   Sulfuric acid →supply up

   Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing)

   Eased Hormuz transit is increasing Gulf crude processing and recovered sulfur, so the primary sulfur feedstock for sulfuric acid becomes more available.

   88% confidence

   Propane (home use) →supply up

   Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream)

   Easier Hormuz transits lift Gulf crude exports and support more upstream NGL stream availability feeding home-use propane.

   77% confidence

   Enterprise Products Partners L.P. →supply up

   Mixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream)