Meteorologists warn of the strongest El Niño in 100 years
A potentially severe El Niño could disrupt agricultural output and food supply across affected regions.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Sugar, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Fish Meal and Fish Oil (Aquaculture Feed) →Shortage riskFish meal and fish oil are critical aquaculture feed inputs, so an El Niño-driven supply squeeze transmits directly into seafood and fish output.
97% confidenceSugar →Shortage riskEl Niño is already hitting major sugar-producing regions, and sugar’s core raw material is sugarcane, so cane availability tightens.
93% confidenceHop 2
Sugarcane →Shortage riskSugarcane is the critical upstream crop input for sugar, so El Niño-driven crop disruption lowers sugar availability.
96% confidenceSeafood and fish →Shortage riskWild Capture / Aquaculture Harvest
A severe El Niño can directly cut catches and harvest volumes, so the harvest step feeding seafood supply is likely to be constrained.
73% confidenceSugarcane →Prices riseRaízen S.A.RAIZ4
With sugarcane as an input and a 12-month replacement horizon, tighter cane supply raises Raízen's procurement costs.
Hop 3
India →Shortage riskEl Niño-driven crop disruption in India can directly tighten turmeric availability because India accounts for 80% of supply.
92% confidenceBrazil →Shortage riskOrange Juice Concentrate (FCOJ)
Brazil supplies 68.1% of FCOJ, so a severe El Niño that reduces Brazilian agricultural output would tighten orange juice concentrate supply.
90% confidenceIndia →Shortage riskCurcumin Extract (Nutraceutical / Anti-Inflammatory)
Because India supplies 82% of curcumin extract, weather-related agricultural disruption there can materially reduce output and tighten supply.
Hop 4
BEKP Eucalyptus Pulp (Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp) →Shortage riskBEKP eucalyptus pulp is a critical input, so a pulp supply shock would make paper and household products scarcer.
89% confidenceOrange Juice Concentrate (FCOJ) →Prices riseFCOJ is a direct input to soft drinks and juices, so a severe supply disruption would most reliably show up as higher finished-beverage costs.
87% confidenceBEKP Eucalyptus Pulp (Bleached Eucalyptus Kraft Pulp) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Seafood and fish · Sugar · Paper and household products · Soft drinks & juices · Spices & seasonings
Companies you may own
RAIZ4Biosev (Louis Dreyfus Company)São Martinho S.A.TereosBGSUZB3CMPC (Empresas CMPC S.A.)Cutrale GroupBracell (RGE Group / April Group)Citrosuco (Fischer Group)Tropicana Brands GroupOlam Food Ingredients (ofi)Louis Dreyfus CompanyMKC
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