UK greenlights $3B Jackdaw gas project
Approval enables development of the Jackdaw gas project, adding future natural gas supply.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Shell plc, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Equinor ASA →supply upJackdaw approval enables additional Equinor gas output, increasing availability of natural gas used as roasting fuel; the 3% market share suggests a limited but real effect.
81% confidenceEquinor ASA →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
The approved Jackdaw project adds future gas supply, making this natural-gas feedstock/fuel more available; the 8% share implies a larger, though still bounded, impact.
81% confidenceShell plc →supply upNatural gas wellhead production
UK approval lets Shell-backed Adura advance Jackdaw, a new gas field expected to begin supplying soon, so Shell's natural-gas wellhead production rises modestly.
79% confidenceQatarEnergy (Qatar Energy) →supply upNatural gas wellhead production
Jackdaw approval adds future natural gas supply, which can increase availability of the broader natural-gas wellhead production input, but the effect on QatarEnergy is only modest because this edge is a small-share, non-sole input.
62% confidenceBP plc →supply upNatural gas wellhead production
Jackdaw approval adds new North Sea gas output, which should modestly increase availability in the natural-gas wellhead production market linked to BP on this edge, though the effect is softened by moderate substitutability and only a 3.5% market share.
38% confidenceHop 2
Natural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →supply upAmmonia and nitrogen fertilizers
Natural gas is a critical feedstock and fuel for Haber-Bosch ammonia/fertilizer production, so added gas supply should raise fertilizer availability.
95% confidenceNatural gas wellhead production →supply upApproval of Jackdaw adds future natural gas wellhead production, which directly increases the availability of home natural gas supply.
93% confidenceNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel) →Prices easeHop 3
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers →supply upNatural Gas (Haber-Bosch Feedstock and Fuel)
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers rely critically on natural gas as both feedstock and fuel, so added Jackdaw gas supply directly eases this input constraint.
93% confidenceNatural gas (home) →Prices easeLNG peak-shaving and import facilities
Extra domestic supply substitutes for some LNG imports and peak-shaving volumes, reducing utilization at import terminals.
79% confidenceNatural gas (home) →Stands to benefitHop 4
Anhydrous Ammonia (NH₃) →supply upAmmonia is a critical, high-dependency input for fertilizers and crop inputs, so added supply should raise availability across the sector.
93% confidenceInterstate natural gas transmission pipelines →supply upMore interstate pipeline supply makes home natural gas more available, and this edge is highly critical (0.95 dependency strength).
93% confidenceUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0) →supply upUrea fertilizer is a critical input to rice production, so greater urea availability should lift rice output and availability.
Hop 5
Solar Turbines (Caterpillar) →supply upNatural gas compressor stations & engines
Jackdaw's added gas output should support more compressor-station and engine buildout, and Solar Turbines' 30% share with low substitutability and a 24-month replacement lead time means its supply can rise materially.
62% confidenceRice →Prices riseUrea Nitrogen Fertilizer (46-0-0)
Rice is highly dependent on urea, so higher rice production can lift demand for this fertilizer and push its price up.
60% confidenceBaker Hughes Company →Stands to benefit
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers · Natural gas (home) · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Rice
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.