Donald Trump approves major US-Israel attack on Iran energy sites
An attack on Iranian energy sites could disrupt production and export flows of energy commodities from Iran.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Electricity (Refinery Operations), we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
QatarEnergy (Qatar Energy) →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production
QatarEnergy’s war-related force majeure and reported damage at Ras Laffan imply curtailed gas/LNG output, making this major supply node scarcer.
86% confidenceBP plc →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead productionBP
The Iranian energy-site attacks tighten global natural-gas supply, so BP’s wellhead-production input becomes scarcer, with only moderate substitutability and a long replacement horizon.
68% confidenceHop 2
Natural gas wellhead production →Shortage riskThe attack directly targets Iranian energy sites, so Iran's 6% share of natural gas wellhead production is constrained at the source.
91% confidenceNatural gas wellhead production →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production is a critical upstream input to household gas, so even a partial production hit can tighten downstream home-gas availability.
64% confidenceHop 3
Iran →Shortage riskNatural gas wellhead production
Iran’s energy-site attack can directly disrupt its 6% share of natural gas wellhead production, reducing available supply.
90% confidenceIran →Shortage riskNatural Gas (Pipeline-Grade, >95% Methane)
Damage to Iranian gas infrastructure can cut its 7% share of pipeline-grade natural gas supply.
86% confidenceIran →Shortage riskAn attack on Iran’s energy and refining assets can reduce its 8% share of bitumen/asphalt binder supply.
Hop 4
Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →Shortage riskBitumen / asphalt binder is a critical input to asphalt and paving materials, so an Iranian supply disruption should directly tighten downstream availability.
96% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage riskElemental sulfur is a critical input to fertilizer and crop-input production, so the Iranian disruption should tighten supply.
93% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →Shortage risk
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Natural gas (home) · Asphalt and paving materials · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Sulfuric acid · Seafood and fish · Electricity (residential) · Palladium and platinum group metals
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.