El petróleo sube casi un 34% desde que empezó la guerra en Irán
The headline implies a major oil price shock tied to war in Iran, affecting crude oil supply expectations and trade flows.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Canadian crude oil imports →Prices riseHigher crude import costs feed into jet fuel through this 0.75 dependency, and EIA reports jet fuel spot prices rose rapidly after Middle East crude/petroleum supply disruptions.
92% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskEIA says Iraq shut in oil production after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and its 3.3% source share means Canadian crude imports from Iraq become constrained.
83% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Shortage riskEIA says Saudi Arabia shut in oil production after Strait of Hormuz disruptions, and its 4.9% source share means Canadian crude imports from Saudi Arabia become constrained.
Hop 2
Jet fuel →Prices riseGulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction)
A war-driven crude rally raises the cost of the key feedstock used to manufacture jet fuel.
92% confidenceIraq →Prices riseIraq accounts for 5.19% of marine diesel and bunker fuel supply, so an Iraq-linked oil shock would raise prices in that market.
83% confidenceSaudi Arabia →Prices riseSaudi Arabia supplies 11.96% of this shipping fuel, so the oil shock should directly raise bunker fuel prices and tighten trade flows.
Hop 3
Bitumen / Asphalt Binder →Prices riseBitumen/asphalt binder is a critical, 0.95-strength input to asphalt and paving materials, so a crude-oil-linked bitumen cost shock should pass through quickly as higher downstream prices.
96% confidenceMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →Prices riseMixed NGL stream is a near-direct critical input to home propane, so a crude-driven tightening in NGL supply should transmit mainly as higher propane prices.
90% confidenceMarine Diesel and Bunker Fuel →Prices riseHop 4
Propane (home use) →Prices riseMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream)
Propane home use sits almost entirely on NGL feedstock, so a crude/oil shock transmits very strongly into higher NGL and propane pricing.
89% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices riseAmmonia is the immediate nitrogen intermediate, so higher upstream energy and feedstock costs translate into a higher ammonia price.
64% confidenceFertilizers and crop inputs →Prices rise
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Asphalt and paving materials · Propane (home use) · Seafood and fish · Sulfuric acid · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Cement and concrete · Palladium and platinum group metals
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.