Middle East oil exports stage a remarkable comeback
Rising Middle East oil exports add crude supply back to global markets.
Source →The trace
How it reaches your house.
Starting from Canadian crude oil imports, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.
First impact
Gulf Coast crude oil feedstock (jet fraction) →supply upThis feedstock is a critical input to jet fuel production, so recovering crude availability should ease the constraint and raise jet fuel supply.
92% confidenceSaudi Aramco →supply upCrude Oil Feedstock2222.SR
Rising Middle East crude exports directly increase crude oil availability for Saudi Aramco's feedstock needs, though the edge's low market share and moderate substitutability limit the transmission size.
88% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Stands to benefitSaudi Arabia supplies 4.9% of Canadian crude imports, and the reported Middle East export rebound means more Saudi crude is flowing back into global trade, making it a modest beneficiary.
77% confidenceCanadian crude oil imports →Stands to benefitIraq supplies 3.3% of Canadian crude imports, so a regional export comeback should improve Iraqi export volumes and benefit this supplier channel.
74% confidenceHop 2
Crude Oil Feedstock →supply upCrude oil feedstock is a critical input for gasoline and diesel, so added crude supply should directly raise their availability.
99% confidenceCrude Oil Feedstock →supply upHome heating oil is a critical downstream product of crude feedstock, so more crude supply should increase its output/availability.
98% confidenceIraq →supply upWith Iraq providing 4% of this feedstock, additional Iraqi exports should directly lift crude feedstock supply.
Hop 3
Elemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →supply upElemental sulfur is a direct feedstock for sulfuric acid, so more sulfur from oil/gas processing should improve sulfuric acid availability and ease price pressure.
93% confidenceElemental Sulfur (from Oil/Gas Processing) →supply upSulfur is a critical input into sulfur-bearing fertilizer and crop-input products, so additional sulfur supply should lift downstream availability.
90% confidenceMixed Natural Gas Liquids (NGL Stream) →supply up
Where it lands
What you buy, and what you own.
Goods you buy
Jet fuel · Gasoline and diesel · Home heating oil · Sulfuric acid · Fertilizers and crop inputs · Propane (home use) · Seafood and fish · Palladium and platinum group metals · Cement and concrete
In the MyPRIA app, this is checked against your own holdings.