ASML says customers want more machines than it can build through 2028

The trace

How it reaches your house.

Starting from ASML, we walked the supply graph hop by hop to the goods you buy and the companies you own. Each step is the engine’s reasoning, scored for confidence and cited where a source backs it.

1. First impact

   EUV Lithography Scanner (ASML) →Delays

   ASML HoldingASML

   ASML is the sole qualified supplier with 100% share, so demand exceeding build capacity through 2028 directly stretches scanner deliveries and backlog at the company.

   97% confidence

   ASML Holding →Delays

   Intel CorporationINTC

   ASML is Intel's sole supplier of EUV lithography tools, so ASML's inability to add capacity through 2028 delays Intel's access to critical tools for leading-edge nodes.

   96% confidence

   ASML →Delays

   Intel Corporation

2. Hop 2

   GPUs and AI accelerators →Prices ease

   HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) Stack

   HBM is a critical accelerator input, so constrained accelerator assembly softens incremental HBM orders and price pressure from this segment.

   80% confidence

   GPUs and AI accelerators →Prices ease

   CoWoS Advanced Packaging (TSMC)

   If fewer accelerators can be built, demand for CoWoS packaging capacity from this product line eases and pricing pressure turns down.

   79% confidence

   GPUs and AI accelerators →Prices ease

   Advanced Logic Wafer (TSMC N3/N4)

3. Hop 3

   Advanced Logic Wafer (TSMC N3/N4) →Shortage risk

   Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)TSM

   ASML's machine bottleneck directly caps TSMC's ability to add N3/N4 capacity, and TSMC is the dominant 90% share, sole-qualified supplier with a 48-month replacement lead time.

   96% confidence

   CoWoS Advanced Packaging (TSMC) →Shortage risk

   GPUs and AI accelerators

   CoWoS is a critical packaging input to GPUs and AI accelerators, so a packaging bottleneck directly tightens their supply.

   93% confidence

   Advanced Logic Wafer (TSMC N3/N4) →Shortage risk

   Taiwan