UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage risk
Russia
Russia supplies 53.8% of this UAN stream, so sanctions on Moscow directly constrict the largest source of supply.
97% confidence
Cargill, Incorporated →Shortage risk
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports)
Cargill explicitly depends on Black Sea wheat (15% share), and sanctions on Russia directly constrain that export stream, tightening this input.
95% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage risk
Russia
Russia accounts for 20% of AN supply here, so sanctions on Russian trade directly constrain that supply share.
92% confidence
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage risk
Uralchem / TogliattiAzot (ToAz)
As the Russian supplier on the path to this node, Uralchem/ToAz is directly exposed to sanctions that curtail shipments into the UAN flow.
92% confidence
Urea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Shortage risk
Russia
Russia holds a 14% supply share for this urea market, so sanctions on Moscow directly squeeze that source of supply.
90% confidence
Bunge Limited →Shortage risk
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports)
New sanctions on Russia directly threaten Black Sea wheat exports, and Bunge’s input dependency on that source is material (18% share) with limited substitutability and a multi-month replacement lag.
88% confidence
Anhydrous Ammonia (MAP / DAP Production) →Shortage risk
Potash and phosphate fertilizers
Anhydrous ammonia is a critical, high-dependency input for MAP/DAP fertilizer production, so tightening its supply would directly reduce output of potash and phosphate fertilizers.
87% confidence
COFCO International Ltd. →Shortage risk
Black Sea Wheat (Russia & Ukraine Exports)
Sanctions on Russia directly constrain COFCO's 12% supply of Black Sea wheat, a moderately substitutable input with a 3-month replacement lead time.
84% confidence
Urea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Shortage risk
Fertilizers and crop inputs
Urea is a critical input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so a Russia-driven urea squeeze should tighten the broader fertilizer basket.
82% confidence
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Shortage risk
Ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers
A 0.7 dependency strength means a constrained UAN stream tightens the broader ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer category.
81% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Shortage risk
Fertilizers and crop inputs
Ammonium nitrate is a direct input to fertilizers and crop inputs, so tighter AN availability makes that broader good scarcer.
81% confidence
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Stands to benefit
Trinidad and Tobago
With a 22.6% share, Trinidad and Tobago can capture displaced demand when Russian supply is constrained.
73% confidence
UAN Solution (Urea Ammonium Nitrate, 28-32% N) →Stands to benefit
Canada
Canada's 22% supply share makes it a plausible substitute beneficiary as Russian UAN is sanctioned out.
73% confidence
Ammonium Nitrate (AN) — Fertilizer / Mining Explosive →Stands to benefit
Canada
With Russian AN constrained, Canada's very large 56.4% supply share can absorb displaced demand and gain relative share.
69% confidence
Urea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Stands to benefit
Nutrien Ltd.NTR
As a major non-Russian urea supplier with a 6% share, Nutrien can capture some displaced demand and firmer pricing.
64% confidence
Urea (Granular/Prilled, 46% N) →Stands to benefit
CF Industries HoldingsCF
CF Industries is another 6% urea supplier, so Russian sanctions can redirect some demand and improve its pricing power.
62% confidence
Ardent Mills →Prices rise
Durum Wheat / Semolina
As Black Sea wheat is constrained, Ardent Mills can partially re-source toward durum wheat/semolina, lifting demand and prices for that substitute input, though the 6-month replacement lag limits the immediate impact.
52% confidence
